The Bessent Tracker
The Bessent Tracker measures the financial, fiscal, and market conditions that shape the Treasury’s ability to support economic growth, maintain confidence in U.S. government debt, and preserve the nation’s position at the center of the global financial system. Six categories examine the capital-formation process — from the price of money and the price of risk to fiscal sustainability, energy security, and international demand for U.S. assets.
Is the Treasury operating environment becoming more supportive or less supportive of innovation, investment, and long-term economic growth?
| Category | Primary Startup Lens |
|---|---|
| Treasury Rates & Yield Curve | Cost of capital, valuation multiples, discount rates |
| Credit Spreads | Investor risk appetite and venture funding availability |
| Dollar & Foreign Exchange | Foreign LP capital, international demand, global investment flows |
| Energy & Energy Security | Inflation transmission, operating costs, macro stability |
| Growth, Debt & Fiscal Sustainability | Long-term capital availability, interest-rate regime, investor confidence |
Treasury Rates & Yield Curve
U.S. Treasury rates are the interest the federal government pays to borrow across maturities, and together they form the Treasury yield curve — one of the most closely watched indicators in global markets. These rates set borrowing costs throughout the economy, and the curve's shape reflects investor expectations for growth, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.
Treasury rates are the foundation of the global cost of capital. Every startup valuation, venture investment, and acquisition model ultimately depends on the level and direction of risk-free rates. When yields rise, investors demand higher returns, discount rates climb, and the present value of future cash flows falls — pressuring valuations and making capital more expensive. Lower yields generally support risk-taking and long-duration growth bets.
Treasury Yield Curve
A simplified Treasury yield curve built from four key maturities — the 3-month bill, 2-year note, 10-year note, and 30-year bond. The relationship among these rates is one of the most closely watched signals in global markets: its shape reflects expectations for growth, inflation, Fed policy, and future financial conditions.
Treasury watches the curve closely because it directly affects borrowing costs and debt-issuance strategy. A normal curve supports efficient financing across maturities; an inverted curve can signal slowing activity and future fiscal challenges. During Secretary Bessent's tenure it offers insight into market confidence on growth, inflation, fiscal sustainability, and future Fed action.
10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Spread
The gap between the 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury yields, and one of the most-followed reads on the curve's shape. The 2-Year is highly sensitive to Fed expectations while the 10-Year reflects long-run growth and inflation, so the spread is a concise measure of sentiment about future conditions. A positive spread is the normal condition for a growing economy; a negative spread — an inversion — has preceded most U.S. recessions.
Treasury watches the 10Y−2Y spread as a leading read on sentiment and future conditions, since it blends policy expectations with long-run growth. A steepening positive spread may signal improving confidence; a persistent inversion can flag rising concern about recession, credit conditions, or future Fed easing.
10-Year Minus 3-Month Treasury Spread
The gap between the 10-Year Treasury and the 3-Month bill. Because the 3-month rate closely tracks current Fed policy — unlike the 2-year, which prices future Fed moves — this spread compares long-term growth expectations directly against today's policy stance, one of the most respected recession-risk indicators.
Treasury monitors this spread as one of the most reliable market-based reads on future conditions. A positive, widening spread signals confidence in growth; a sustained inversion can flag rising recession risk or restrictive conditions — a key input to economic-momentum and fiscal-planning assumptions.
3-Month Treasury Bill Rate
The yield on lending to the U.S. government for three months. With minimal credit risk and a very short maturity, it's the closest market proxy for current Federal Reserve policy and the most sensitive Treasury rate to changes in the Fed funds rate.
Treasury watches the 3-month rate because it directly affects the cost of financing a large share of short-term federal debt, shaping auction demand and issuance strategy. It's a real-time read on Fed-policy and inflation expectations; elevated rates raise borrowing costs and deficit pressure, while very low rates ease financing but may signal weakness.
2-Year Treasury Note Yield
The yield on a two-year loan to the U.S. government — widely regarded as the market's best read on the Fed's likely path. Unlike the 3-month bill (current policy), the 2-year prices in expected inflation, growth, and rate decisions over the next several years, influencing corporate debt, bank lending, and investment decisions.
Treasury monitors the 2-year because it reveals where investors believe policy and conditions are headed. Though Treasury doesn't set rates, shifts here influence federal borrowing costs and auction demand, and big moves often precede major Fed-policy changes — a valuable forward-looking input.
10-Year Treasury Note Yield
The yield on a ten-year loan to the U.S. government — the most-followed Treasury rate in global markets and a benchmark for valuing a broad range of assets. It reflects expectations for long-term growth, inflation, Fed policy, and federal borrowing needs, and influences mortgages, corporate borrowing, and equity valuations. Often called the single most important interest rate in the world.
Treasury watches the 10-year because it directly affects long-term borrowing costs and gauges investor confidence in U.S. economic and fiscal management. Rising yields raise financing costs and future deficits through higher interest; falling yields ease costs but can reflect weakening activity.
30-Year Treasury Bond Yield
The yield on a thirty-year loan to the U.S. government — the longest standard maturity, driven primarily by long-term confidence rather than near-term Fed policy. Investors here are judging inflation, debt levels, productivity, and demographics decades out, making it especially sensitive to inflation expectations and perceptions of fiscal sustainability.
Treasury watches the 30-year as the market's verdict on long-term fiscal credibility. Rising long yields raise the cost of financing federal debt and may flag concern about deficits, issuance, or inflation; stable or falling long yields signal continued confidence in the U.S. as the premier sovereign borrower.
Credit Spreads
Credit spreads measure the additional yield investors demand to hold riskier debt instead of U.S. Treasuries. Because Treasuries are the benchmark “risk-free” asset, the gap is a direct measure of risk appetite and financial stress: narrow spreads signal confidence in growth and corporate profitability, while widening spreads signal caution — often before weakness shows up in traditional economic data.
Credit spreads measure investors' willingness to take risk. When spreads are narrow, capital flows more freely to speculative, growth-oriented opportunities — including venture-backed startups. When spreads widen, investors prioritize capital preservation, financing becomes harder for emerging companies, and risk appetite contracts. Because venture sits at the far end of the risk spectrum, spread moves often shift startup funding conditions long before the effect is visible in private markets.
Broad Corporate Bond Option-Adjusted Spread
The average extra yield investors require to own investment-grade corporate bonds instead of comparable Treasuries. Because Treasuries are effectively risk-free, this isolates the compensation demanded for corporate credit risk across a broad investment-grade universe — a comprehensive read on overall credit-market conditions.
Treasury monitors broad investment-grade spreads as a real-time gauge of financial conditions across the economy. Where Treasury yields reflect the government's own borrowing cost, corporate spreads reveal how investors price private-sector credit risk. Widening spreads can signal deteriorating confidence and tighter lending; narrow spreads indicate healthy credit markets and confidence in growth.
Moody’s Baa Corporate Bond Spread
The gap between Moody's Baa-rated corporate bond yields and the 10-Year Treasury. Baa is the lowest tier of investment grade, sitting just above speculative grade, so it is especially sensitive to shifts in economic conditions and confidence — historically a reliable read on stress and recession risk.
Treasury follows the Baa spread because Baa issuers are often the first to feel financing pressure when conditions weaken. Rising Baa spreads point to growing investor caution and concern about future performance; narrowing spreads reflect improving confidence and healthier capital-market conditions.
High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread
The extra yield investors demand to own below-investment-grade (“junk”) corporate bonds instead of Treasuries — one of the most sensitive reads on risk appetite and perceived default risk. High-yield issuers carry weaker balance sheets and more economic sensitivity, so this spread often moves before broader conditions deteriorate.
Treasury watches high-yield spreads as an early warning of financial-market stress. Unlike investment-grade measures, they react quickly to shifting expectations; rising spreads may flag weakening momentum and tightening conditions, while falling spreads reflect improving confidence and risk appetite.
MOVE Index
The ICE BofA MOVE Index measures expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market — the “VIX of the bond market.” Where yields measure the level of rates, MOVE measures uncertainty about them. Because Treasuries are the foundation of global markets, Treasury volatility ripples into credit, equities, mortgages, and international capital flows, making MOVE one of the most important reads on financial-market stability.
Treasury-market volatility affects nearly every source of startup capital. When rates become hard to predict, investors turn cautious, valuations swing, and financing tightens — high MOVE readings often coincide with reduced venture activity, lower risk tolerance, and harder IPO and growth financing. A stable Treasury market does the opposite: it lets investors make long-term commitments comfortably, supporting venture investment, startup formation, and innovation.
ICE BofA MOVE Index
Derived from options on U.S. Treasuries, the MOVE Index reflects expected future movement in Treasury yields. Higher readings mean investors expect larger, more frequent rate swings; lower readings mean a stable, predictable rate environment.
Few indicators matter more to Treasury, whose ability to finance the government depends not just on the level of rates but their stability. Elevated MOVE signals a tougher environment for issuance, refinancing, and planning — higher costs, thinner liquidity, less predictable demand. Because Treasuries benchmark nearly all other assets, sustained Treasury volatility can ripple worldwide.
Dollar & FX
The U.S. dollar is the world's primary reserve currency and the foundation of the global financial system — international trade, cross-border investment, commodity pricing, and capital flows all depend on confidence in it. This category tracks broad dollar strength and key currency pairs. For Treasury, the goal isn't the strongest possible dollar but a stable, trusted one that keeps attracting global capital and preserves reserve-currency status.
Silicon Valley is increasingly funded by global capital — venture, pension, sovereign-wealth, and family-office money flows to U.S. innovation because of confidence in American markets, institutions, and the dollar. Exchange rates shape cross-border flows, purchasing power, and the relative attractiveness of U.S. assets. A trusted dollar reinforces the U.S. as the preferred destination for global investment capital; currency markets hint at whether that capital keeps flowing toward American entrepreneurship.
Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad Goods
The dollar against a broad basket of trading-partner currencies, weighted by trade relationships — the primary measure of overall dollar strength and international purchasing power, rather than a single-currency comparison.
DTWEXBGS gives Treasury the most comprehensive read on dollar strength against many partners — a key gauge of international confidence in U.S. economic and financial leadership, and of whether global investors continue to favor U.S. assets at levels consistent with stability.
U.S. Dollar per Euro
The dollar's value relative to the euro — the world's second reserve currency and a major share of global trade, investment, and central-bank reserves. Movements reflect growth, inflation, rate, and confidence differences between the U.S. and Europe.
The euro is the largest alternative to the dollar, so Treasury watches this pair for how global investors weigh U.S. versus European assets. Shifts can reflect changing expectations on growth, inflation, and policy across the two largest developed blocs.
Japanese Yen per U.S. Dollar
The dollar's value versus the yen — a major reserve and funding currency. Japan is among the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, and with historically low Japanese rates the yen funds global “carry trades,” so this pair offers insight into global risk appetite and capital flows.
Treasury follows dollar-yen closely because Japanese pensions, insurers, and banks hold large amounts of U.S. debt. Yen moves offer insight into foreign Treasury demand and global financing conditions, and can shift how attractive Treasuries are to Japanese investors.
Swiss Franc per U.S. Dollar
The dollar's value versus the Swiss franc — a premier safe-haven currency. Swiss stability, strong institutions, and low inflation make the franc a preferred refuge in uncertain times, so this pair is often driven by demand for safety, offering a read on global risk sentiment.
Treasury watches dollar-franc as a market read on global confidence and risk perception. Because both are safe havens, shifts reveal how investors weigh relative stability; sharp franc strength can signal growing caution, while stability reflects confidence in major reserve currencies.
Energy & Energy Security
Energy markets shape inflation, growth, financial stability, and government financing. Because energy costs ripple through transportation, manufacturing, agriculture, and consumer spending, oil-price moves spread across the economy. This category tracks crude prices, domestic production, and the global-versus-U.S. benchmark gap. For Treasury, sustained oil-price increases can raise inflation, delay easing, and lift borrowing costs — while stable supply and moderate prices support lower inflation and easier financing. Because global oil trades in dollars, stable energy markets also reinforce the dollar's reserve role.
Energy costs influence inflation, interest rates, and the overall availability of capital. Rising oil prices can mean higher inflation, tighter policy, and costlier financing — which for startups translates into lower valuations, less venture activity, and more selective investment. Stable prices support lower inflation, better confidence, and a friendlier environment for innovation. Energy security also underpins data centers, cloud, semiconductors, and transportation — core infrastructure for the technology ecosystem.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price
The primary U.S. crude benchmark and one of the most-watched commodity prices in the world. Because oil influences transportation, manufacturing, power, and consumer prices, WTI moves feed inflation expectations, growth forecasts, and market conditions — the most direct read on U.S. energy-related inflation risk.
Treasury watches WTI because oil is among the biggest drivers of inflation expectations. Sustained increases can influence Fed policy, raise financing costs, and weigh on growth — a real-time read on whether energy is helping or hurting efforts to lower inflation and stabilize borrowing costs.
Brent–WTI Crude Oil Spread
The gap between Brent (global benchmark) and WTI (U.S. benchmark). Brent is more sensitive to international supply disruptions and geopolitics; WTI to domestic production and logistics. The spread reads the market's assessment of global energy risk — widening signals international supply concern, narrowing signals alignment.
The spread gives Treasury a read on the geopolitical risk premium in global energy — helping separate domestic from international pressure. A widening spread may flag rising geopolitical risk or supply-chain disruption, with knock-on effects for inflation expectations, financing conditions, and capital flows.
Growth & Fiscal Health
U.S. strength depends not only on growth but on managing debt, financing operations, and sustaining confidence in Treasury securities. This category examines the relationship among output, federal borrowing, debt-service costs, and sustainability — together answering whether the economy can generate enough growth and revenue to support its obligations over time. For Treasury, sustainability preserves investor confidence, reduces borrowing costs, and supports long-term stability.
The long-term availability of capital depends on confidence in the nation's economic and fiscal trajectory. Strong growth supports tax revenues, returns, entrepreneurship, and business formation; excessive debt, rising interest costs, and fiscal deterioration can crowd out productive investment and push rates higher. Investors allocate capital where future growth looks strongest and most sustainable — so for Silicon Valley, fiscal sustainability helps set the future cost of capital and the environment in which innovation can flourish.
Federal Debt Held by the Public as % of GDP
Publicly held federal debt relative to total economic output — debt measured against the nation's capacity to generate income and tax revenue. Debt-to-GDP is among the most widely used sustainability indicators because it compares obligations to the resources available to support them.
This is one of the clearest reads on the long-term fiscal position. A rising ratio means debt is growing faster than the economy; a stable or falling ratio suggests improving sustainability.
Federal Surplus or Deficit as % of GDP
The annual gap between federal revenues and outlays relative to the economy — whether the government is adding to or reducing its debt each year. Because deficits accumulate into future debt, this gauges the direction of fiscal policy.
Treasury watches deficits because they directly drive future borrowing needs. Larger deficits generally require more issuance and can raise interest costs over time.
Debt Service Ratio
The share of federal current receipts consumed by net interest payments — much like a household's mortgage-payment-to-income ratio. It's a direct measure of how much government revenue is required just to service existing debt. Computed from federal net interest payments (A091RC1Q027SBEA) and current receipts (W006RC1Q027SBEA).
Among fiscal metrics, the debt-service ratio is one of the clearest reads on financing pressure. Rising interest costs can crowd out other priorities and increase vulnerability to future rate shocks.
Real GDP Growth Rate
The inflation-adjusted rate at which the economy is expanding or contracting — a core read on overall performance and productive capacity. Because growth generates income, employment, profits, and tax revenue, it's the foundation on which fiscal sustainability ultimately rests.
Growth expands the tax base and the resources available to support federal obligations — strong growth can improve sustainability even when debt is elevated.
Growth Minus Debt Service Burden
A derived sustainability signal comparing the economy's growth rate with the share of revenue consumed by debt service — a simple way to see whether growth is keeping pace with the fiscal burden of servicing debt. Computed as Real GDP Growth (A191RL1Q225SBEA) minus the Debt Service Ratio.
This capstone synthesizes Treasury's twin challenges — fostering growth while managing debt-service costs. A rising value suggests improving sustainability; a falling value, increasing pressure from debt obligations relative to performance.