Capital Transmission Framework · Fiscal Dominance Index

Fiscal Dominance Tracker

Emerging regime · since Jan 24 · the deficit has a yield now

Fiscal dominance is the state in which the scale of sovereign debt begins to set the price of capital. This tracker watches it manifest in real time — in the auction tape and the long end first, then in the slower structural gravity underneath — and reads each signal as what it means for the cost and availability of capital that funds the innovation economy, not as a rates trade.

30Y TREASURY

Rising — toward stress

5.25%

Since Jan 24

+1.03 pp

TERM PREMIUM · 10Y

Reflating off its floor

+0.76%

Since Jan 24 (~-0.21)

+0.97 pp

INTEREST / TAX REV

High · off its 2024 peak

~33%

Since Jan 24 (35.3%)

-1.9 pp

AUCTION DEMAND · 30Y

In range (last auction)

2.82×

Bid-to-cover · weak < 2.2

dealer 2%

Hero readouts colored by danger direction (rising stress = red), not the asset-price up=green convention — see the note at foot.

Live Feedreal-time · monthly & per-auction · fiscal dominance showing up in a price

Long-End Yield · 30Y / 10Y

"The deficit has a yield now" — the headline price of long money.

DGS30 / DGS10 (master) · monthly EOM · ref 5.00%

Auction Demand · Bid-to-Cover + Dealer %

Are private buyers showing up, or is supply being forced onto dealers?

auction_tail.py · 30Y per-auction · weak < 2.2× · dealer = share of total accepted

Auction Tail · Concession (bps)

The concession Treasury pays to clear — stress on named dates.

auction_tail.py · 30Y per-auction · dispersion proxy (true tail = #18 gap)

Term Premium · 10Y (ACM)

Compensation demanded to hold duration — the pre-registered FD trigger, reflating off its floor.

ACMTP10 (master) · monthly · floor 0 · danger > 1.5%

Slow Gaugestructural gravity · monthly & quarterly · the math underneath

Interest / Tax Revenue

Share of federal taxes eaten purely by interest — the death-spiral tell.

DEBT_SERVICE_RATIO (A091RC1 ÷ W006RC1) · quarterly · fiscal Minsky ~32% (= 20% of total receipts)

Primary Deficit / GDP

Structural overspending, before interest is even counted — the deficit you'd still run at zero rates.

DEFICIT_TO_GDP + A091RC1÷GDP (ex-interest) · quarterly · balanced 0 · danger > 3%

r − g Differential

When the cost of debt outruns growth, the math stops closing — the marginal rate (what we borrow at now) leads the average toward the line.

marginal r (bills×3mo + coupon×equal-wt 2/5/10/20/30yr) & avg r (AVG_INT_RATE) vs NGDP YoY · monthly · danger > 0

Debt Maturity · T-Bill Share

Rollover dependency and the "bills as a funding crutch" tell, in one line.

ISSUANCE_bills_pct (master · Treasury issuance) · monthly · TBAC ceiling ~20%

Live Feed from the U.S. Treasury FiscalData API (via auction_tail.py, 30Y per-auction) and DGS30/DGS10/ACMTP10; Slow Gauge from macro_dashboard_master.csv (the monthly data_pull). Window fixed at the Fiscal Dominance boundary (Jan 24); prior-era context is carried as dashed reference lines. Locked CE dark dataviz standard.
r − g marginal rate: the 3-month yield weighted by the bill share plus an equal-weight blend of the 2/5/10/20/30-year yields by the coupon share. The master carries no per-tenor issuance weights, so the coupon blend is equal-weighted — a stated approximation (the 2-year is a far larger share of issuance than the 30-year). Both r−g lines run through Jun 2026, where NGDP growth ends.
On the interest/tax measure: federal interest ÷ tax receipts (~34%), not total federal receipts (~22%, the figure cited elsewhere against a "20% fiscal Minsky threshold"). Payroll and other social-insurance receipts are earmarked for Social Security and Medicare and never fund discretionary policy, so the base debt service actually crowds out is general tax receipts. On that basis the fiscal Minsky line sits near 32% (= their 20% of total receipts), and we have already crossed it.
Hero-card coloring follows danger direction (rising stress = red), a confirmed inversion of the metric-card up=green rule — these are stress indicators, not returns.

Regime-Era Register · Fiscal DominanceEmerging Regime Era

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